Friday, January 16

A financial modeler's manifesto - hard to model human behavior

Finally, someone says it correctly.
Our experience in the financial arena has taught us to be very humble in applying mathematics to markets, and to be extremely wary of ambitious theories, which are in the end trying to model human behavior. We like simplicity, but we like to remember that it is our models that are simple, not the world.

Bingo!  Unfortunately, this is one of those "esoteric topics" that is "hard for the average person to understand" so it probably "won't get widespread attention" although it's one of the fundamental issues that "caused the current financial meltdown".

No comments: